October 2026 Week 7 Recap: Model vs. Market Report card time: the model went 33–26 against this week's over/unders (143–145 on the season), locked in before kickoff and graded after. Plus the 5 games it whiffed on hardest. October 2026 · New We Taught a Computer to Vote in the AP Poll After Saturday's chaos, our new projection says BYU jumps from 8th to 3rd. It learned from 147 weeks of AP polls and lands within 1.12 spots on average. Plus: why unbeaten Texas Tech and Utah barely move, and why beating Colorado buys you nothing. October 2026 · New We Brought Back the BCS From 1998 to 2013, a formula picked who played for the title. We rebuilt it, two polls and six computers, and tested it on 53 real BCS standings: same No. 1 and No. 2 in 92.45% of them. It still thinks Texas got robbed in 2008. October 2026 · Updated Sixty Years of Points New update: the hurry-up crackdown people remember came in 2011, not 2014, and it didn’t slow the fastest offenses down. Baylor was the fastest offense in the country in 2013 and 2015. Plus 60 years of how football got so good at offense. October 2026 Week 6 Recap: Model vs. Market Report card time: the model went 26–32 against this week's over/unders (110–119 on the season), locked in before kickoff and graded after. Plus the 5 games it whiffed on hardest. October 2026 · Preview Zero Weather, Maximum Confusion The game our model disagrees with the sportsbooks about most this week is under a roof. The weather isn't the problem: the model has no idea who North Dakota State is. October 2026 · Preview Over, Under, or Overthinking? Our model says Georgia at Alabama scores 63.7 points. The sportsbooks say 51.5. Both teams are 5–0 to the over. We lowered our standards, chased every trend we could find, and the strongest one points the other way. October 2026 Week 5 Recap: Model vs. Market Report card time: the model went 30–26 against this week's over/unders (84–87 on the season), locked in before kickoff and graded after. Plus the 5 games it whiffed on hardest. October 2026 · New Fluke or For Real? Baylor went to Tempe as an underdog and won 55–19. Where that ranks in Baylor history, and what 61 years of blowouts say about whether a night like that means anything for the rest of the season. October 2026 · New Who Won the Trenches? The theory: NIL money lets rich programs hoard pass rushers, so defensive lines are scarier than ever. The data: sacks haven't budged, and the first years of the new era belonged to the blockers. October 2026 · New How Kickers Got Good In 1965 kickers made 46.8% of their field goals. Last season: 76.6%. Sixty-one years of kicking, two rule changes that moved the numbers overnight, one that didn't matter at all, and the 50-yard boom happening right now. October 2026 · Updated Go for Two to Win It? Tulsa went for two to win in overtime Thursday, and lost. It did the same thing last year, and lost. We ran the numbers on overtime's biggest decision: kicking wins, and coaches who gambled went 3 for 13. Update: big underdogs have a better case for going for two. October 2026 · New Build Your Own Rankings Line up as many as eight rankings side by side, pin your team and watch it light up on every list. Plus: Clemson is 18–1 in the rain, the academies own the ground, and Navy games aren't the unders you'd think. October 2026 · New When Academies Collide Our model said Navy at Air Force would score 57.1 points. The sportsbooks said 45.5. Turns out when two service academies meet, the points vanish, and it's not the reason you'd think. September 2026 · New The Greatest Glow-Ups in College Football Curt Cignetti took Indiana from 9–27 to 16–0 in two years. Is that the biggest program glow-up ever? We graded 1,044 coaching runs since 1968. He's third, and nobody's ever done it faster. September 2026 Week 4 Recap: Model vs. Market Report card time: the model went 27–31 against this week's over/unders (54–61 on the season), locked in before kickoff and graded after. Plus the 5 games it whiffed on hardest. September 2026 · New The Big 12's Power Shift Was Bigger Than the Big 12 We zoomed out to every FBS team since 1965. Texas and its neighbors went from the weakest region of the 1990s to one of the strongest, and the Southeast? It was the boss long before the SEC era. September 2026 · New How the Big 12 South Took Over In 1996 the Big 12 North was where the monsters lived. By 2004 the South ran the place. Spoiler: it was the offense, and the South started throwing first. September 2026 · Corrected Can We Beat the Over/Under? Short answer: nope. Once we stopped letting the model peek at the answers, it missed by 13.3 points to the sportsbooks' 12.9 and called over/unders at a coin-flip 50.3%. Here's how we caught ourselves. September 2026 · New Which Coaches Win in Bad Weather? Great rainy-day records mostly just mean great teams. But two coaches beat their own expectations by about 10 points in the rain, and every "wind specialist" turns out to have a windy home stadium. September 2026 Week 3 Recap: Model vs. Market Report card time: the model went 27–30 against this week's over/unders (27–30 on the season), locked in before kickoff and graded after. Plus the 5 games it whiffed on hardest. September 2026 · New Does Home Field Get Bigger in the Heat? Do home teams get a secret boost when it's scorching? Not at 85°F. At 90°F and up, yes, a real one. And the sportsbooks already build it into their spreads. September 2026 · Updated Does Weather Actually Change College Football? Rain and snow really do make it harder to throw. Rain even causes more turnovers. And yet none of it changes who wins. Here's the surprisingly simple reason why. September 2026 · Updated Does It Matter How Far From Home the Weather Is? Hawai'i played in 26.3°F in Laramie and lost a 59–56 thriller. Does weather hit harder when you're not used to it? A detective story with two fake clues and one small, real answer. September 2026 · Updated How Temperature Changes the Way Teams Play Cold doesn't actually make kickers miss (plot twist), rushing bottoms out at 76°F, and real heat gives home teams a small bump. September 2026 · Updated Does Extreme Temperature Change the Total? 16,850 games say warmer games score more and colder games score less, in a straight line. The "both extremes are bad" theory? Didn't hold up. September 2026 · Updated The Games Weather Hit Hardest The worst weather game we've tracked cost an offense 274.5 passing yards to rain and wind. That's a whole good passing game, washed away. September 2026 · Updated The Windiest Kickoffs We've Ever Recorded A sustained 44.4 mph at Wyoming tops the list, and Air Force once finished a windy game with negative one passing yard. Negative. One. September 2026 · Updated The Wettest Kickoffs We've Ever Recorded 4.31 inches of rain in one afternoon at Virginia Tech tops the list, and somehow the teams still threw for 500+ yards. Weather sets the stage; it doesn't decide the game. September 2026 · Updated Hunting for Weather-Influenced Upsets Does bad weather cause upsets? We built a "how shocking was this?" score for every game to find out. Spoiler: no. But the list of rainy-day upsets is still a blast.