An ongoing experiment, not a predictive tool. Tested on every season from 2010 to 2025, this model picked the right side of the over/under 50.3% of the time, no better than a coin flip, and the posted line was more accurate. "vs. Line" is just how far apart the two numbers are. Not betting advice; "How this works" has the details.

The 10 games with the largest gap between the model and the posted line, pinned at the kickoff venue — bigger football, bigger disagreement. Tap or hover a pin for the matchup.