Week 5 Recap: Model vs. Market
Report card time. Every prediction below was locked in before its game kicked off, no do-overs and no peeking. For each game, the model's pick is simple: if it predicted more points than the sportsbooks' over/under, that's an Over; fewer, an Under. Then we keep score like a team does: wins and losses. Reminder: the model is an experiment, not a crystal ball. Tested on every season from 2010 to 2025, it won 50.3% of its picks, basically a coin flip, so one good or bad week is just noise. Here's how the model works.
Season win rate: 49.1%. Why 52.4% to break even? Sportsbooks take a cut, called the vig: you risk $110 to win $100, so going 50–50 still loses money. (Betting is for adults, and the house usually wins. We just keep score.) Average miss this week: the model was off by 13.0 points, the sportsbooks by 12.8; the model was closer on 27 of 56 games.
The 5 biggest misses
The games where our model's guess ended up furthest from the real final total. Blowouts, shootouts, and games that just went totally off script. Humbling, every week.
| Matchup | Posted O/U | Model | Actual | Off by | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Virginia @ Iowa State | 53.5 | 53.3 | 42–45 (87.0) | 33.7 | Under | Loss |
| North Texas @ Tulsa | 56.5 | 56.1 | 45–44 (89.0) | 32.9 | Under | Loss |
| UL Monroe @ South Alabama | 57.5 | 55.9 | 35–52 (87.0) | 31.1 | Under | Loss |
| Syracuse @ UConn | 51.5 | 53.5 | 42–41 (83.0) | 29.5 | Over | Win |
| Ohio @ Kent State | 50.5 | 52.4 | 13–10 (23.0) | 29.4 | Over | Loss |
Every game, every call
| Matchup | Posted O/U | Model | Actual | Conditions | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Virginia @ Iowa State | 53.5 | 53.3 | 42–45 (87.0) | 12mph wind | Under | Loss |
| North Texas @ Tulsa | 56.5 | 56.1 | 45–44 (89.0) | 4mph wind | Under | Loss |
| UL Monroe @ South Alabama | 57.5 | 55.9 | 35–52 (87.0) | 0.20in rain, 7mph wind | Under | Loss |
| Syracuse @ UConn | 51.5 | 53.5 | 42–41 (83.0) | 9mph wind | Over | Win |
| Ohio @ Kent State | 50.5 | 52.4 | 13–10 (23.0) | 8mph wind | Over | Loss |
| Oregon State @ Colorado State | 62.5 | 57.0 | 56–26 (82.0) | 16mph wind | Under | Loss |
| UTSA @ Rice | 56.5 | 55.0 | 16–14 (30.0) | 0.06in rain, 12mph wind | Under | Win |
| BYU @ TCU | 48.5 | 51.6 | 17–10 (27.0) | 6mph wind | Over | Loss |
| Temple @ South Florida | 50.5 | 53.4 | 17–13 (30.0) | 0.50in rain, 6mph wind | Over | Loss |
| Navy @ Air Force | 45.5 | 45.0 | 9–14 (23.0) | 10mph wind | Under | Win |
| Baylor @ Arizona State | 48.5 | 53.5 | 55–19 (74.0) | 7mph wind | Over | Win |
| Wyoming @ North Dakota State | 44.5 | 48.4 | 0–28 (28.0) | dome | Over | Loss |
| Purdue @ Illinois | 62.5 | 60.5 | 24–17 (41.0) | 9mph wind | Under | Win |
| California @ UNLV | 52.5 | 51.1 | 31–39 (70.0) | dome | Under | Loss |
| Auburn @ Tennessee | 54.5 | 56.0 | 14–24 (38.0) | 0.02in rain, 5mph wind | Over | Loss |
| Maryland @ Nebraska | 52.5 | 54.2 | 23–48 (71.0) | 10mph wind | Over | Win |
| Kentucky @ South Carolina | 52.5 | 52.6 | 35–34 (69.0) | 6mph wind | Over | Win |
| Alabama @ Mississippi State | 62.5 | 62.8 | 56–23 (79.0) | 4mph wind | Over | Win |
| Notre Dame @ North Carolina | 46.5 | 47.1 | 37–26 (63.0) | 11mph wind | Over | Win |
| San José State @ Hawai'i | 50.5 | 51.5 | 20–16 (36.0) | 11mph wind | Over | Loss |
| Texas Tech @ Colorado | 50.5 | 51.2 | 29–7 (36.0) | 13mph wind | Over | Loss |
| Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech | 53.5 | 52.8 | 35–33 (68.0) | 8mph wind | Under | Loss |
| Fresno State @ Washington State | 44.5 | 47.1 | 26–6 (32.0) | 6mph wind | Over | Loss |
| Cincinnati @ Arizona | 56.5 | 56.1 | 7–34 (41.0) | 13mph wind | Under | Win |
| Arkansas @ Texas A&M | 50.5 | 54.9 | 7–34 (41.0) | 10mph wind | Over | Loss |
| Michigan State @ Wisconsin | 43.5 | 47.6 | 3–31 (34.0) | 11mph wind | Over | Loss |
| Michigan @ Minnesota | 41.5 | 46.1 | 14–20 (34.0) | 16mph wind | Over | Loss |
| Boston College @ SMU | 55.5 | 52.6 | 16–25 (41.0) | 0.14in rain, 6mph wind | Under | Win |
| UTEP @ New Mexico | 47.5 | 56.4 | 7–61 (68.0) | 5mph wind | Over | Win |
| Akron @ Central Michigan | 46.5 | 47.1 | 17–41 (58.0) | 7mph wind | Over | Win |
| UCF @ Houston | 50.5 | 54.7 | 17–27 (44.0) | 10mph wind | Over | Loss |
| Western Kentucky @ New Mexico State | 55.5 | 57.5 | 13–34 (47.0) | 8mph wind | Over | Loss |
| Western Michigan @ Buffalo | 45.5 | 47.4 | 20–17 (37.0) | 8mph wind | Over | Loss |
| Washington @ USC | 58.5 | 56.1 | 21–25 (46.0) | 10mph wind | Under | Win |
| Memphis @ Charlotte | 52.5 | 57.3 | 59–8 (67.0) | 3mph wind | Over | Win |
| Arkansas State @ Louisiana | 49.5 | 52.6 | 20–23 (43.0) | 6mph wind | Over | Loss |
| Liberty @ Delaware | 51.5 | 52.3 | 30–14 (44.0) | 7mph wind | Over | Loss |
| Army @ Louisiana Tech | 46.5 | 52.8 | 29–31 (60.0) | 10mph wind | Over | Win |
| Virginia @ Florida State | 51.5 | 51.3 | 7–38 (45.0) | 7mph wind | Under | Win |
| Toledo @ Ball State | 52.5 | 57.0 | 39–24 (63.0) | 10mph wind | Over | Win |
| Stanford @ Wake Forest | 54.5 | 54.5 | 3–57 (60.0) | 13mph wind | Push | Loss |
| Vanderbilt @ Georgia | 50.5 | 57.1 | 14–38 (52.0) | 0.02in rain, 6mph wind | Over | Win |
| Indiana @ Rutgers | 57.5 | 57.5 | 47–15 (62.0) | 4mph wind | Push | Loss |
| Eastern Michigan @ Massachusetts | 48.5 | 47.8 | 38–14 (52.0) | 7mph wind | Under | Loss |
| Old Dominion @ Georgia State | 51.5 | 55.8 | 10–42 (52.0) | 5mph wind | Over | Win |
| Marshall @ James Madison | 55.5 | 58.2 | 17–45 (62.0) | 0.02in rain, 5mph wind | Over | Win |
| Bowling Green @ Miami (OH) | 41.5 | 47.7 | 24–20 (44.0) | 10mph wind | Over | Win |
| Florida @ Missouri | 57.5 | 58.6 | 17–45 (62.0) | 5mph wind | Over | Win |
| Miami @ Clemson | 49.5 | 50.7 | 41–13 (54.0) | 6mph wind | Over | Win |
| Utah State @ Boise State | 51.5 | 52.5 | 18–37 (55.0) | 6mph wind | Over | Win |
| Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina | 53.5 | 52.7 | 31–24 (55.0) | 4mph wind | Under | Loss |
| Texas State @ San Diego State | 57.5 | 58.1 | 29–31 (60.0) | 6mph wind | Over | Win |
| Louisville @ NC State | 56.5 | 57.5 | 28–31 (59.0) | 0.50in rain, 11mph wind | Over | Win |
| Middle Tennessee @ Kansas | 51.5 | 53.7 | 0–55 (55.0) | 7mph wind | Over | Win |
| Ohio State @ Iowa | 46.5 | 43.9 | 31–14 (45.0) | 8mph wind | Under | Win |
| Penn State @ Northwestern | 46.5 | 47.4 | 13–34 (47.0) | 11mph wind | Over | Win |
Not betting advice. This is a running scorecard for an experimental model, posted automatically once each week's games are final. Every week's recap lives on the blog.