Week 3 Recap: Model vs. Market
Report card time. Every prediction below was locked in before its game kicked off, no do-overs and no peeking. For each game, the model's pick is simple: if it predicted more points than the sportsbooks' over/under, that's an Over; fewer, an Under. Then we keep score like a team does: wins and losses. Reminder: the model is an experiment, not a crystal ball. Tested on every season from 2010 to 2025, it won 50.3% of its picks, basically a coin flip, so one good or bad week is just noise. Here's how the model works.
Season win rate: 47.4%. Why 52.4% to break even? Sportsbooks take a cut, called the vig: you risk $110 to win $100, so going 50–50 still loses money. (Betting is for adults, and the house usually wins. We just keep score.) Average miss this week: the model was off by 14.5 points, the sportsbooks by 14.0; the model was closer on 23 of 57 games.
The 5 biggest misses
The games where our model's guess ended up furthest from the real final total. Blowouts, shootouts, and games that just went totally off script. Humbling, every week.
| Matchup | Posted O/U | Model | Actual | Off by | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Temple @ Toledo | 48.5 | 46.0 | 48–49 (97.0) | 51.0 | Under | Loss |
| Florida State @ Alabama | 49.5 | 45.5 | 36–50 (86.0) | 40.5 | Under | Loss |
| Florida @ Auburn | 52.5 | 43.6 | 44–39 (83.0) | 39.4 | Under | Loss |
| Purdue @ UCLA | 52.5 | 52.4 | 38–52 (90.0) | 37.6 | Under | Loss |
| Florida International @ Florida Atlantic | 62.5 | 57.9 | 10–16 (26.0) | 31.9 | Under | Win |
Every game, every call
| Matchup | Posted O/U | Model | Actual | Conditions | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Temple @ Toledo | 48.5 | 46.0 | 48–49 (97.0) | 7mph wind | Under | Loss |
| Florida State @ Alabama | 49.5 | 45.5 | 36–50 (86.0) | 0.01in rain, 7mph wind | Under | Loss |
| Florida @ Auburn | 52.5 | 43.6 | 44–39 (83.0) | 4mph wind | Under | Loss |
| Purdue @ UCLA | 52.5 | 52.4 | 38–52 (90.0) | 2mph wind | Under | Loss |
| Florida International @ Florida Atlantic | 62.5 | 57.9 | 10–16 (26.0) | 0.09in rain, 5mph wind | Under | Win |
| New Mexico @ Oklahoma | 45.5 | 48.3 | 6–14 (20.0) | 15mph wind | Over | Loss |
| Ohio @ South Alabama | 49.5 | 50.3 | 36–41 (77.0) | 0.10in rain, 4mph wind | Over | Win |
| Georgia State @ UCF | 50.5 | 50.9 | 30–44 (74.0) | 4mph wind | Over | Win |
| Mississippi State @ South Carolina | 59.5 | 52.5 | 41–34 (75.0) | 0.04in rain, 5mph wind | Under | Loss |
| UAB @ Louisiana | 55.5 | 57.4 | 14–21 (35.0) | 4mph wind | Over | Loss |
| SMU @ Louisville | 57.5 | 49.8 | 31–41 (72.0) | 7mph wind | Under | Loss |
| Coastal Carolina @ Delaware | 56.5 | 56.6 | 14–22 (36.0) | 10mph wind | Over | Loss |
| Eastern Michigan @ Wisconsin | 43.5 | 43.8 | 10–54 (64.0) | 0.04in rain, 7mph wind | Over | Win |
| USC @ Rutgers | 58.5 | 56.9 | 42–35 (77.0) | 7mph wind | Under | Loss |
| Utah State @ Utah | 55.5 | 53.1 | 0–33 (33.0) | 5mph wind | Under | Win |
| North Texas @ Texas State | 62.5 | 63.9 | 35–49 (84.0) | 7mph wind | Over | Win |
| UTSA @ Texas | 58.5 | 56.0 | 6–30 (36.0) | 11mph wind | Under | Win |
| Western Kentucky @ Indiana | 59.5 | 57.2 | 0–38 (38.0) | 0.01in rain, 5mph wind | Under | Win |
| Bowling Green @ Iowa State | 43.5 | 43.3 | 7–55 (62.0) | 14mph wind | Under | Loss |
| Michigan State @ Notre Dame | 51.5 | 54.6 | 10–27 (37.0) | 0.17in rain, 4mph wind | Over | Loss |
| Arkansas State @ TCU | 56.5 | 54.7 | 7–31 (38.0) | 11mph wind | Under | Win |
| Buffalo @ Penn State | 48.5 | 52.3 | 13–55 (68.0) | 6mph wind | Over | Win |
| West Virginia @ Virginia | 51.5 | 49.3 | 38–27 (65.0) | 4mph wind | Under | Loss |
| Ball State @ Liberty | 49.5 | 50.5 | 15–51 (66.0) | 0.02in rain, 4mph wind | Over | Win |
| BYU @ Colorado State | 54.5 | 49.0 | 41–23 (64.0) | 5mph wind | Under | Loss |
| UConn @ Southern Miss | 54.5 | 53.1 | 48–20 (68.0) | 0.01in rain, 6mph wind | Under | Loss |
| UTEP @ Michigan | 48.5 | 54.3 | 17–52 (69.0) | 8mph wind | Over | Win |
| Miami (OH) @ Cincinnati | 50.5 | 52.2 | 31–35 (66.0) | 0.04in rain, 5mph wind | Over | Win |
| Virginia Tech @ Maryland | 53.5 | 47.6 | 35–26 (61.0) | 9mph wind | Under | Loss |
| NC State @ Vanderbilt | 50.5 | 54.0 | 31–35 (66.0) | 8mph wind | Over | Win |
| Kennesaw State @ Tennessee | 60.5 | 62.3 | 9–42 (51.0) | 2mph wind | Over | Loss |
| Stanford @ Duke | 51.5 | 52.9 | 7–35 (42.0) | 7mph wind | Over | Loss |
| Arizona State @ Kansas | 51.5 | 51.7 | 24–17 (41.0) | 18mph wind | Over | Loss |
| North Dakota State @ Sacramento State | 50.5 | 51.4 | 31–10 (41.0) | 6mph wind | Over | Loss |
| Syracuse @ Pittsburgh | 51.5 | 50.2 | 13–27 (40.0) | 7mph wind | Under | Win |
| James Madison @ San Diego State | 46.5 | 48.6 | 26–13 (39.0) | 3mph wind | Over | Loss |
| Fresno State @ San José State | 47.5 | 45.2 | 26–10 (36.0) | 2mph wind | Under | Win |
| Wyoming @ Central Michigan | 39.5 | 43.0 | 10–24 (34.0) | 6mph wind | Over | Loss |
| Troy @ Missouri | 49.5 | 52.5 | 17–27 (44.0) | 6mph wind | Over | Loss |
| East Carolina @ Old Dominion | 48.5 | 44.6 | 20–17 (37.0) | 11mph wind | Under | Win |
| LSU @ Ole Miss | 58.5 | 49.2 | 24–32 (56.0) | 3mph wind | Under | Win |
| Georgia Southern @ Jacksonville State | 51.5 | 51.8 | 27–31 (58.0) | 3mph wind | Over | Win |
| Charlotte @ App State | 52.5 | 52.8 | 21–26 (47.0) | 0.18in rain, 4mph wind | Over | Loss |
| Kent State @ Ohio State | 58.5 | 56.6 | 3–59 (62.0) | 0.33in rain, 9mph wind | Under | Loss |
| Miami @ Wake Forest | 55.5 | 47.9 | 33–20 (53.0) | 6mph wind | Under | Win |
| Northern Illinois @ Arizona | 50.5 | 54.1 | 17–42 (59.0) | 6mph wind | Over | Win |
| North Carolina @ Clemson | 44.5 | 43.3 | 20–28 (48.0) | 13mph wind | Under | Loss |
| Nevada @ Middle Tennessee | 50.5 | 51.6 | 20–27 (47.0) | 6mph wind | Over | Loss |
| Houston @ Texas Tech | 52.5 | 50.2 | 26–28 (54.0) | 16mph wind | Under | Loss |
| Western Michigan @ Rice | 43.5 | 45.2 | 28–21 (49.0) | 6mph wind | Over | Win |
| Colorado @ Northwestern | 47.5 | 44.6 | 7–41 (48.0) | 0.65in rain, 7mph wind | Under | Loss |
| Tulane @ Kansas State | 49.5 | 53.2 | 20–31 (51.0) | 0.47in rain, 15mph wind | Over | Win |
| Marshall @ Missouri State | 52.5 | 51.8 | 30–24 (54.0) | 9mph wind | Under | Loss |
| Akron @ Minnesota | 48.5 | 46.6 | 7–41 (48.0) | 0.05in rain, 9mph wind | Under | Win |
| Kentucky @ Texas A&M | 49.5 | 52.9 | 31–21 (52.0) | 10mph wind | Over | Win |
| Georgia @ Arkansas | 54.5 | 62.5 | 45–17 (62.0) | 11mph wind | Over | Win |
| Louisiana Tech @ Baylor | 50.5 | 55.1 | 19–36 (55.0) | 11mph wind | Over | Win |
Not betting advice. This is a running scorecard for an experimental model, posted automatically once each week's games are final. Every week's recap lives on the blog.