Two ways to look at it. Playoff odds plays out the rest of the season 5,000 times: every remaining game, the conference title games, the committee’s final ranking and the playoff itself. If Selection Day were today takes the newest ranking and applies this season’s rules right now.

The 12-team field under this season’s rules: the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions and the highest-ranked champion from the other six conferences get in automatically, Notre Dame gets in if it’s in the top 12, and the highest-ranked teams left fill the rest. Seeds go straight by ranking; the top four get a first-round bye. Until a conference plays its title game, its highest-ranked team stands in as champion.